Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.710157 0.826157 0.954664 1.107526 1.284367 1.482485 1.721278
2025-02-09 0.530341 0.688180 0.882302 1.138350 1.467028 1.874666 2.418696
2025-02-16 0.428145 0.600434 0.828632 1.152460 1.599779 2.195648 3.049787
2025-02-23 0.355825 0.531690 0.779132 1.151801 1.698166 2.469309 3.640407
2025-03-02 0.300297 0.474163 0.731973 1.140819 1.771903 2.708220 4.202740
2025-03-09 0.260217 0.431701 0.698203 1.140787 1.856069 2.965552 4.816648
2025-03-16 0.219928 0.381900 0.644759 1.100237 1.868120 3.108793 5.264525
2025-03-23 0.208024 0.376498 0.660844 1.172870 2.069673 3.572964 6.282343
2025-03-30 0.180398 0.339744 0.618997 1.140729 2.088532 3.734189 6.805590
2025-04-06 0.156333 0.305746 0.577102 1.102093 2.089344 3.861399 7.279548
2025-04-13 0.136514 0.276757 0.540251 1.067234 2.091274 3.988175 7.763206
2025-04-20 0.125540 0.263261 0.530404 1.081596 2.186135 4.293401 8.611454
2025-04-27 0.121227 0.262887 0.546496 1.149995 2.396705 4.845524 10.010320
2025-05-04 0.113475 0.254406 0.545537 1.184276 2.544108 5.293165 11.258772
2025-05-11 0.104739 0.242527 0.535943 1.199037 2.652425 5.673511 12.412276
2025-05-18 0.095712 0.228671 0.520254 1.198357 2.727057 5.991198 13.467926
2025-05-25 0.086890 0.214019 0.500909 1.186939 2.776352 6.259714 14.446505
2025-06-01 0.079880 0.202633 0.487403 1.186905 2.850768 6.589899 15.597995
2025-06-08 0.070868 0.185113 0.457521 1.144744 2.822651 6.688211 16.231914
2025-06-15 0.069994 0.187790 0.475792 1.220261 3.081742 7.468395 18.542955
2025-06-22 0.062906 0.173521 0.451076 1.186845 3.072419 7.620947 19.371676
2025-06-29 0.056239 0.159420 0.425006 1.146675 3.041307 7.717578 20.073827
2025-07-06 0.050483 0.146974 0.401605 1.110431 3.015710 7.824472 20.813124